Industry Outlook
Employment in the telecommunications industry is expected to decline 7 percent over the 2004-14 period, compared with 14 percent growth for all industries combined. Industry consolidation and strong price competition among telecommunications firms will decrease employment as companies try to reduce their costs. Additionally, technological improvements, such as high-speed wireless data transmission, fiber optic lines, and advanced switching equipment, have massively increased the data transmission capacity of telecommunications networks, and resulted in much higher productivity that will further reduce employment. Telecommunications equipment also is more reliable and requires less monitoring. In spite of the declining employment, a growing number of retirements and need for skilled workers will create good job opportunities for individuals with up-to-date technical skills.
The industry will continue to grow despite the lower employment as people and businesses will demand ever wider ranges of telecommunications services. The growth of high-speed Internet and video services will lead to continued upgrades of telecommunications networks. Residential customers will use an increasing range of services as technology and competition lower the price of high-speed Internet access, video-on-demand, and wireless and Internet-based telephone services. Cable companies and telephone companies will both offer cable television, high-speed Internet, and phone services. Wireless carriers will compete directly with the residential wired services, providing increasingly reliable cellular communications and increasingly faster Internet service. Therefore, the lines between cable and satellite TV, wireless, and wireline telephone systems will become blurred.
Business demand will rise as companies increasingly rely on their telecommunications systems to conduct electronic commerce, ordering, record keeping, and video conferencing. In order to remain competitive, businesses will require higher speed access to the Internet.
Technology is continuing to transform the industry and will continue to bring on line a wider array of services to homes and businesses. The installation and upgrading of fiber optic networks will bring ever-faster communications to residential customer's homes. Internet telephony will blur the boundaries between telecommunications providers and Internet service providers. Wireless providers will continue to increase the capacity of their radio networks and introduce improved portable, lightweight devices capable of transmitting voice, data, email, Internet access, and video. New phones will blur boundaries between phones and computers. Some wireless phones will not only function on traditional wireless networks, but also will use VoIP technology to make phone calls through local wireless Internet networks. Undersea cables and orbiting satellites are integrating wireline and wireless customers into a global system of high-speed communications.
Employment growth will differ among the various occupations in the telecommunications industry, largely as a result of technological change. Employment of communications equipment operators is expected to decline due to increasing automation. Computer voice recognition technology lessens the need for central office operators, as customers can obtain help with long-distance calls from automated systems. This technology, which also enables callers to request numbers from a computer instead of a person, is expected to reduce the number of directory assistance operators. The numbers of these workers will drop further as more customers use automated directory assistance resources on the Internet.
Employment of line installers and repairers is expected to decrease due to more reliable equipment and expanding applications of wireless technology. Employment of telecommunications equipment installers and repairers is expected to decline because newer, more reliable technologies will reduce the need for equipment maintenance. Employment of these workers also will be limited by the tendency of many companies to contract out maintenance and installation work to specialized contractors that are part of the construction or retail industries. However, there still will be many openings available for individuals with the necessary technical skills.
Employment of electrical and electronics engineers and computer professionals is expected to change only slightly. The expansion of communications networks, and the need for telecommunications providers to invest in research and development, will create some job opportunities for these workers. However, the increasing standardization of telecommunications technology will limit their employment.