Industry Outlook
Wage and salary employment in grocery stores is expected to increase about 7 percent by the year 2014, compared with the 14 percent growth projected for all industries combined. Many additional job openings will arise from the need to replace workers who transfer to jobs in other industries, retire, or stop working for other reasons. Replacement needs are particularly significant due to the industry's large size and the high turnover rate among cashiers and other workers who do not choose to pursue long-term grocery industry careers.
Employment will grow as the population increases and as more grocery stores offer a wider array of goods and services that include prescription drugs, drycleaning, film developing, flowers, liquor, and carryout food, as well as banking, postal, and catering services. Grocery stores are adding and enhancing delicatessens, bakeries, and meat and seafood departments to accommodate the trend toward eating away from home; stores are also adding ready-to-eat-meals to compete with fast-food restaurants. The trend toward opening supercenters, where a myriad of products and services are available at a single location, is increasingly popular. These expansions are expected to create many new jobs.
Some technological advances—such as computer-scanning cash registers and automated warehouse equipment—have boosted productivity, but these innovations are not expected to adversely affect employment levels. In fact, past technological improvements like scanners and electronic data interchange are expected to improve opportunities in areas such as category management and distribution.
Increasing competition from large discount department stores and supercenters will either force smaller independent grocery stores to sell out to larger ones, or, at a minimum, encourage the industry to become more efficient by adopting new technologies and procedures that eliminate redundancies, especially in the supply chains.
Increasingly, many stores let customers process their own transactions with almost no interaction with a cashier. The growing use of self-checkout machines at grocery stores may have an adverse effect on employment of cashiers. This trend, however, will depend largely on the public's acceptance of automated checkouts. Thus far, self-checkouts have been popular, but the popularity is concentrated among individuals who purchase only a few items or who seek to minimize the length of time spent in stores.
Another technology which may also impact employment of cashiers is radio frequency identification (RFID). This technology allows universal bar codes to be replaced with microchips on individual items, thereby allowing entire shopping carts to be instantaneously scanned, fully automating the checkout process. Such automation, however, would initially appear only at larger supermarkets due to the cost, and is years away from being implemented.
On the other hand, many other tasks, such as stocking shelves on the sales floor or helping a customer find a product, cannot be performed effectively by machines. In addition, many consumers have demonstrated their strong desire for personal services. For example, consumers want managers to answer questions about store policy and services; they want cashiers and courtesy clerks to answer questions, bag goods, or help them bring groceries to their cars; and they want workers in specialty departments to advise them on their purchases and fill personal orders by providing custom cuts of meat, fish, or poultry.
Projected growth for some grocery store occupations differs from the 7 percent growth projected for the industry as a whole. For example, employment of bakers and workers in food preparation and serving related occupations is expected to grow faster than the industry because of the popularity of freshly baked breads and pastries, carryout food, and catering services. With cost cutting in mind, however, some supermarkets may outsource bakery services to small specialty bakeries, thus shifting demand from large chain supermarkets to specialty bakery shops.
Electronic shopping currently is gaining in popularity across the country. Growth of online grocery shopping, however, should remain modest as a result of several factors, including logistical complications, particularly in rural areas, and the expense of delivering perishable goods in a timely manner.
Unlike many other industries, the grocery industry is not highly sensitive to changes in economic conditions. Even during periods of recession, demand for food is likely to remain relatively stable.