Industry Outlook
Wage and salary employment in the Federal Government is projected to grow by 2.5 percent through the year 2014, compared to 14 percent growth projected for salaried employment in all industries combined. Job growth generated by increased homeland security needs may be largely offset by projected slow growth or declines in other Federal sectors due to governmental cost-cutting, the growing use of private contractors, and continuing devolution—the practice of turning over the development, implementation, and management of some programs of the Federal Government to State and local governments.
Staffing levels in government, while relatively stable in the short run, can be subject to change in the long run due mainly to changes in public policies as legislated by the Congress, which affect spending levels and hiring decisions for the various government departments and agencies. In general, over the coming decade, domestic programs are likely to see cuts in their budgets as Congress seeks to reduce the Federal budget deficit, but the cuts will likely affect some agencies more than others. Any employment declines, however, generally will be carried out through attrition—simply not replacing workers who retire or leave the Federal Government for other reasons. Layoffs, called “reductions in force,” have occurred in the past, but they are uncommon and usually affect relatively few workers. In spite of this, there still will be numerous employment opportunities in many agencies, due to the need to replace workers who leave the workforce, retire, or accept employment elsewhere.
While there will be job openings in all types of jobs over the coming decade, demand will continue to grow for specialized workers in areas related to border and transportation security, emergency preparedness, public health, and information analysis.
A study by the Partnership for Public Service, which surveyed Federal department and agency hiring needs for the 2005-2006 period, found that most of the new hires in the Federal Government will come in 5 major areas. They are: security, enforcement, and compliance, which includes inspectors, investigators, police officers, airport screeners, and prison guards; medical and public health fields; engineering and the sciences, including microbiologists, botanists, physicists, chemists, and veterinarians; program management and administration; and accounting, budget, and business, which includes revenue agents and tax examiners needed mainly by the Internal Revenue Service. The Department of Health and Human Services will need health insurance specialists and claims and customer service representatives to implement the Medicare Prescription Drug benefit. Patent examiners, foreign service officers, and lawyers also are in high demand.
The distribution of Federal employment will continue to shift toward a higher proportion of professional, business and financial operations, and protective service workers. Employment declines will be the greatest among office and administrative support occupations and production occupations, due to increasing office automation and contracting out of these jobs.
Competition is expected for some Federal positions, especially during times of economic uncertainty, when workers seek the stability of Federal employment. In general, Federal employment is considered to be relatively stable because it is not affected by cyclical fluctuations in the economy, as are employment levels in many private sector industries.