Industry Outlook
Numerous job openings will result from turnover in this large industry. Jobs will be available for young workers, first-time jobseekers, persons with limited job experience, senior citizens, and people seeking part-time work, such as those with young children or those who wish to supplement their income from other jobs. Persons with a college degree or computer skills will be sought for managerial positions.
Overall, the number of wage and salary jobs in clothing, accessory, and general merchandise stores is expected to increase 10 percent over the 2004–14 period, compared with the 14 percent increase projected for all industries combined. The relatively slow growth is due mainly to limited job growth in clothing and accessory stores, as discount department stores and supercenters account for a greater share of apparel sales. Also limiting employment growth is the popularity of supercenters and warehouse stores that stress self-service and are, consequently, less labor intensive than traditional retailers. Employment in full-service department stores will grow the slowest, as more people buy from discounters.
Alternative retail outlets such as mail-order companies, home shopping, and the Internet will continue to take customers away from traditional retail stores, thereby limiting job growth. However, the negative effects on employment resulting from this trend will be minimized as traditional retailers increase their presence in these outlets. In addition, although online sales are expected to grow rapidly, sales at traditional retail stores are projected to continue to account for a major portion of total retail sales. Also, although electronic commerce is expected to limit the growth of some retail jobs, it is increasing opportunities for other occupations, such as Internet sales managers, webmasters, technical support workers, and other related workers.
Some companies are moving toward obtaining goods directly from the manufacturer, bypassing the wholesale level completely and thereby reducing costs and increasing profits. This trend may further limit job growth in the industry, particularly among administrative and managerial workers. In addition, many of these stores, particularly clothing and accessory stores, are highly sensitive to changes in the economy and to changing tastes of consumers. Guessing wrong on upcoming trends, especially several years in a row, or being unable to weather a recession can cause even large, well-established stores to go bankrupt or out of business. As a result, changes in employment can be volatile and may include periods of rapid increases and decreases in the number of jobs.
Job growth also will be limited as retailers try to lower costs by contracting out some of the activities typically performed by retail workers. For example, retailers will use temporary workers to stock and order products and to perform customer service.
Worker productivity is increasing because of technological advances, particularly among clerks, managers, and buyers. For example, computerized systems allow companies to streamline purchasing and obtain customer information and preferences, reducing the need for buyers. However, because direct customer contact also will remain important, employment of sales workers who interact personally with customers will be less affected by technological advances.