Emurse

Employment in the agriculture, forestry, and fishing industry is projected to decline 11 percent over the 2004-2014 period. Low agricultural prices and increasing imports of lumber and fish will cause many workers to leave this industry. In addition, fishers face growing restrictions on where they can fish and how much they can harvest because many fisheries (fish habitats) have been depleted due to years of overfishing.

Numerous farms are expected to go out of business over the next decade because prices for many agricultural goods are low, a situation that has many causes. First, U.S. farms continue to produce more than is needed to meet domestic and export requirements. Increasing productivity means that it takes less farm labor to produce crops and livestock than in the past. In addition, market pressures on the family farm will continue to drive consolidation in the industry, as farms become bigger and more likely to be controlled by large corporations. The decline in employment will be fastest, at 21 percent, among self-employed and unpaid family workers, most of whom are farmers and their families. Employment of wage and salary workers is expected to decline by 5 percent compared with 14 percent growth for all industries combined.

Employment on many farms will most likely continue to be characterized by low wages and lack of benefits. Employment of farmers and ranchers is projected to decrease, but increase for agricultural managers. The number of farmworkers is expected to decline as technology replaces some manual labor. The same is true for the occupation of graders and sorters.

Employment in aquaculture has been growing steadily over the past 12 years in response to growth in the demand for fish. However, competition from imported fish and an unsettled regulatory environment that is placing restrictions on some fish farms may slow the growth of this sector of agriculture.

Employment declines, however are being moderated by other changes taking place in agriculture. New developments in the marketing of milk and other agricultural produce through farmer-owned and -operated cooperatives hold promise for some dairy and other farms. Furthermore, demand is growing for organic farm produce—grown to a large extent on small to medium-sized farms. The production of crops without the use of pesticides and certain chemicals is allowing farms of small acreage to remain economically viable—which only 12 years ago appeared to have almost no future as working farms. Also, some Federal, State, and local government programs provide assistance targeted at small farms. For example, some programs allow farmers to sell the development rights to their property to nonprofit organizations pledged to preserving green space. This immediately lowers the market value of the land—and the property taxes levied on it—making farming more affordable.

Employment in forestry is also expected to decline as the sector moves towards greater mechanization, replacing many lower skilled workers with more machinery tended by a few operators. In addition, imports of wood and wood products are expected to continue to grow. Other countries—particularly Canada—have invested more heavily in their lumber and paper mills than has the United States, enabling them to keep prices low. The best job opportunities will be for those forestry workers with more skills, such as technicians and foresters.

In the fishing sector, increases in imports and efforts to revive fisheries by limiting fishing activity in them will continue to lead to employment declines. Although certain areas of the country, such as Alaska, will continue to harvest massive amounts of fish, and remain relatively prosperous, the Nation's fisheries are a delicate resource. To the extent that they are damaged by such factors as coastal pollution or overfishing, there will be fewer jobs for fishers.